Markets entered April with a rebound as buyers stepped in and stocks climbed off their 2026 lows. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 recovered from correction territory and the broader S&P 500 avoided an official correction.

Geopolitical developments complicated the backdrop. U.S.-Iran tensions escalated over the weekend with increased aggression and reciprocal threats. Iran shot down multiple U.S. aircraft and President Trump issued a deadline for Iran to end hostilities by Tuesday evening while warning of strikes on power infrastructure that would curtail energy supply.

Energy markets sit at the center of the risk set. Rising oil costs transmit through the economy by elevating input costs for businesses and squeezing consumer budgets which in turn feeds inflationary pressure. Persistent energy-driven inflation can push investors to demand higher yields and that dynamic may move rates independently of central bank intentions. The combination of higher yields and elevated inflation can slow growth and weigh on the labor market.

On the labor front the unemployment rate declined in March to 4.3 percent which beat the consensus expectation. The print provided modest support for risk assets during a period with limited positive headlines.

The week features a slate of macro releases that markets will parse for shifts in growth and inflation expectations.

• Durable goods orders (Tue)
• Iran-U.S. war deadline (Tue)
• Minutes of FOMC (Wed)
• PCE Index and inflation data (Thu)
• GDP (Thu)
• Wholesale inventories (Fri)

SPY staged a short-term bounce that carried it above a near-term moving average while it remains under other significant moving averages. Buyers still face work to clear resistance that sits near a commonly watched longer-term average. A decisive move above that level would open the path for further upside momentum but until then the technical picture remains mixed.

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